Amazing

[COL NIL SATIS]

The lengths some Liverpool supporters will goto to get a rough idea of how next season will pan out lol

This guy is off RAWK ...Red and white kop



UNBELIEVABLE LOL ....He genuinely believes its all physics.........


Personally, I don't think league tables tell the full picture during a season, as they don’t take into account the teams played so far, neither do they illustrate whether the fixtures were home or away.

I’ve posted in other threads the details of a basic model I use to evaluate league standings but thought it might be of interest to start a thread for this season. I intend to periodically update it to include the effects of results on my theoretical league table.

There are a few assumptions I have to make to keep this model as simple as possible. Firstly, I assume that 90 points should be a target points total for a title challenge. You can't control league position entirely yourself, so focussing on points makes more sense to me. If we earn 90 points this season and don’t win the league, it would just mean another team has done exceptionally well.

In order to achieve 90 points, I make the assumption that you need to win every home game (57 points) and your 7 'easiest'* away games (21 points), drawing the remaining 12 away games (12 points). This means that a draw away at Old Trafford is a par result for a title winning team, with a win there being 2-over-par, but a draw at home to Norwich is 2-under-par. During the season (as with during a round of golf to use that analogy further) it is unlikely for you to play to par in every match (hole), but any dropped points need to be made up elsewhere.

* I assume the 7 'easiest' away games are against the teams that finished between 17th and 14th last season and the three promoted teams as I need to determine my par scores before the season starts (I appreciate this isn't ideal, but I have to start somewhere).

During the season, I will be plotting the results to par of all the teams that finished above us, as well as our own, to see how the fixtures played affects the league position.

To get things going, this is a graph to illustrate how Liverpool’s and Man Utd‘s fixtures differ during the coming season. It shows that Man Utd’s first half of the season has more 3-point pars than ours. In fact, if we are within 6 points of them after 16 games, we would, in theory, be ahead of them.




he has even added a graph

the guys who posted below were more on the money though

Raoul Duke posts

Interesting. So basically you're saying that we have harder fixtures in the first half of the season than Manchester United, meaning that if we are within six points of them at that time we will be in a strong position?

What this model doesn't take into account, however, is the ability of a side like Liverpool to be better at beating the big opponents than the weaker, more defensive teams in the league. You have used a straight league position finish to determine the comparable strength of a side, but that doesn't take into account how we have historically (within the last ten years or so) struggled against sides like Wigan, Stoke or West Brom.

reply from the PROF had me in stitches

That's right.

I know there are limitations like the ones you point out, but my thinking is that we have dropped points in the past that we shouldn't have if we want to win the league. What this model does is show where a draw is a good or bad result, or where a loss isn't that destructive. Stoke and West Brom away are both 1 point pars.


absolute gold dust that is

[AL JAY]

He states... In fact, if we are within 6 points of them after 16 games, we would, in theory, be ahead of them. How does that one work out...

Hahahaha he seems obsessed,and isn't the sharpest pencil in the box,even some of the reds on that site were embarrassed by his post...

[MaxineC]

Bless his cotton socks.... but the man needs Help!!!